CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-12-31T10:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-12-31T10:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28405/-1
CME Note: CME NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery visible for about three frames in STEREO A COR2 imagery prior to a data gap starting at 2023-12-31T10:53Z, after which the CME is out of the field of view. The source is a large filament eruption spanning N35W30 to N20W65 which begins to lift off around 2023-12-30T09:40Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 12:30Z in SDO AIA 171 and 193 as well. Most of the eruptive material appears to originate from the more western side of the filament. A possible arrival signature is characterized by an amplication of magnetic field with Btotal increasing from 7nT at 2024-01-03T04:50Z to ~12nT, an increase in solar wind speed from 415 to ~480 km/s, as well as a significant jump in density to over 18 pp/cm^3 and and increase in temperature are also observed. There is a likely arrival of the same CME at STEREO A hours earlier, indicating a westerly event.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-03T04:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-03T11:01Z (-3.92h, +5.44h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2023/12/31 10:45Z Plane of Sky 1: 16:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction Plane of Sky 2: 21:10Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction POS Difference: 4:40 POS Midpoint: 18:50Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:05 Numeric View/Impact Type: 0 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.94 Travel Time: ~8.94 * 8:05 = 72:16 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-01-03T11:01Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time: 5% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5Lead Time: 13.57 hour(s)
Difference: -6.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-01-02T15:16Z
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